In this paper we demonstrate that there is evidence of an unstable and nonlinear re-lationship between fundamentals and exchange rates. Modeling this time-varying nature of the importance of fundamentals in a Markov switching framework substan-tially improves the fit of the real interest rate...

In this Paper we present an overview of a number of issues relating to the equilibrium exchange rates of the new EU member states from Central and Eastern Europe. In particular, we present a critical overview of the various methods available for calculating equilibrium exchange rates and discuss...

This Paper examines inflation indicators for the euro area by studying the relationship between inflation, output, money and interest rates, using data spanning 1980-2001. The central finding is that both the output gap and the real money gap (the difference between the real money stock and the...

This paper is a brief evaluation of the Eurosystem's monetary-policy regime after its first year, in particular of the extent to which it is similar to inflation targeting as practiced by an increasing number of central banks. I examine the Eurosystem's goals, framework for monetary-policy...

Inflation target regimes (like those of Canada, Finland, New Zealand, Sweden and the United Kingdom) are interpreted as having explicit inflation targets and implicit output/unemployment targets. Without output/unemployment persistence, delegation of monetary policy to a discretionary...

The so-called P* model is frequently used or referred to in discussions of monetary targeting. This gives the impression that the P* model might provide some rationale for monetary targeting or for the monetary reference value used by the Eurosystem. The P* model implies that inflation is...

The paper discusses several issues related to how monetary policy should be conducted in an era of price stability. Low inflation (with base drift in the price level) and price-level stability (without such base drift) are compared, and a suitable loss function (corresponding to flexible...

We examine to what extent variants of inflation-forecast targeting can avoid stabilization bias, incorporate history-dependence, and achieve determinacy of equilibrium, so as to reproduce a socially optimal equilibrium. We also evaluate these variants in terms of the transparency of the...

The paper discusses the choice between inflation targeting and monetary targeting as a strategy for the Eurosystem, the actual strategy the Eurosystem announced in the fall of 1998, the framework for policy decisions appropriate for achieving the goals of the Eurosystem, the role of exchange...

The Riksbank faces challenges with regard to each of its three core functions, conducting monetary policy with the objective of stabilising inflation around the inflation target and resource utilisation around a sustainable level, promoting a safe and efficient payment system and thereby...