Using an agent-based modeling approach we study the temporal dynamics of consumer opinions regarding switching to dynamic electricity tariffs and the actual decisions to switch. We assume that the decision to switch is based on the unanimity of $\tau$ past opinions. The resulting model explains...

This paper provides detailed information on Team Poland’s approach in the electricity price forecasting track of GEFCom2014. A new hybrid model is proposed, consisting of four major blocks: point forecasting, pre-filtering, quantile regression modeling and post-processing. This universal model...

We show that incorporating the intra-day and inter-zone relationships of electricity prices in the Pennsylvania--New Jersey--Maryland (PJM) Interconnection improves the accuracy of short- and medium-term forecasts of average daily prices for a major PJM market hub -- the Dominion Hub in...

This paper proposes an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to study the diffusion and adoption of dynamic electricity tariffs. We discuss the difference between opinions and decisions of electricity consumers regarding dynamic pricing. By means of a simple ABM, we provide a plausible explanation...

It is argued that in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis a Markov regime switching (MS) property can be exploited to identify shocks if the reduced form error covariance matrix varies across states. The model setup is formulated and discussed and it is shown how it can be used to...

We examine possible accuracy gains from using factor models, quantile regression and forecast averaging for computing interval forecasts of electricity spot prices. We extend the Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) approach of Nowotarski and Weron (2014) and use principal component analysis to...

Probabilistic load forecasting is becoming crucial in today's power systems planning and operations. We propose a novel methodology to compute interval forecasts of electricity demand, which applies a Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) technique to a set of independent expert point forecasts....

Using an agent-based modeling approach we show how personal attributes, like conformity or indifference, impact opinions of individual electricity consumers regarding innovative dynamic tariff programs. We also examine the influence of advertising, discomfort of usage and the expectations of...

In the paper, Structural Vector Autoregressive models (SVAR) are used to identify fundamental and speculative shocks, in the UK electricity market. The structural shocks are identified via short run restrictions, which are imposed on the matrix of instantaneous effects. In the research, two main...