We provide empirical evidence on the dynamic effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes using a timing-convention. We document that pre-announced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise to contractions in output,...

While the sagging economy is focusing attention on fiscal policy’s capacity to fight a slump, another challenge looms – the demographic pressures on future program spending. Short-term stimulus can only succeed if it preserves confidence in the long-run capacity of Canadian governments to...

If governments do not meet their budget commitments, accountability to legislators and voters breaks down. How reliable have federal, provincial and territorial commitments been over the past 10 years? Overruns have been the general rule, but some governments have done much better than others.

Saving and investment are critical to Canada's economy. They underpin today's prosperity and will be critical to raising living standards in the future. Growth in Canada's workforce is slowing, and a larger population of older Canadians will soon need pensions and social services. Federal fiscal...

We provide empirical evidence on the effects of tax liability changes in the United States. We make a distinction between "surprise" and "anticipated" tax shocks. Surprise tax cuts give rise to a large boom in the economy. Anticipated tax liability tax cuts are instead associated with a...

Unusual economic and political circumstances surround the framing of the 2009 federal budget. A period of global spending outrunning productive capacity has ended with financial crisis and recession in much of the world, Canada included. The sudden slump has prompted demand for, and expectations...

Every year, legislators in Canada vote for budgets that set out targets for the coming fiscal year. But every year, governments tend to spend more than they promise at budget time. The result: accountability between legislators and voters breaks down. Canadians should demand better.

Near-term turbulence should not distract Ottawa budget-makers from critical long-term tasks. This 2008 shadow federal budget will move Canada a key step forward by providing improved incentives and rewards for Canadians' work and saving, and a more congenial environment for investment and...

Canadian governments are projecting large amounts of red ink in their 2009 budgets. Notwithstanding the impact of the economic slump on government finances, it is natural for Canadians to ask whether this new borrowing is partly the result of insufficient fiscal discipline during the good times,...

As a result of demographic change, Canadian governments face a net liability of $1.4 trillion for healthcare, education, seniors' and children's programs. Meeting this challenge will require fiscal discipline, partial prefunding and growth-friendly policies.