Showing 1 - 10 of 211
I evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of five models of Chinese and Indian energy consumption. The results are mixed, but in general the auto-regressive distributed lag and unobserved components models perform the best over multiple evaluation criteria. I then use these two models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011114340
against a control algorithm with a perfect forecast. A specific case study, using storage on the LV network, is presented, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010778846
develop next day total energy use (NDTEU) and next day peak demand (NDPD) forecast models for each phase. The models were ….87 and forecast accuracy ranged from 0.74 to 0.84. NDPD hindcast accuracy ranged from 0.68 to 0.74 and forecast accuracy … combined the best traits of the ARIMAX and NN techniques, resulting in improved hindcast and forecast fits across the all three …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011031054
In this paper we introduce HECTOR, a new and advanced long-term electricity market model that simulates market behavior bottom-up through opportunistic, variable cost-based bidding of individual power plants into auction-based national markets with international interconnection capacities....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008487662
The forecast plays an important role in the planning, the decision-making and control in any domain of activity … (univariate models), that use only the information of its past values to forecast the future, can often predict future with more … accuracy than causal or multivariate models. In this paper, we model and forecast the offensive effectiveness of the soccer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005789648
The concept of unforeseen events is considered as a part of a hypothesis of uncertain future. The applications of the consequences of the hypothesis in utility and prospect theories are reviewed. Partially unforeseen events and their role in forecasting are analyzed. Preliminary preparations are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011110243
Deficit/ Surplus, Unemployment Rate, Inflation and others. We forecast the macroeconomic variables post 2012 using ARIMA …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011260661
article aims to describe econometric estimation of money transfers associated with remittances. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011184489
This paper compares forecast accuracy of two Dynamic Factor Models in a context of constraints interms of data … availability. Estimation technique and properties of the factor decomposition depend onthe cross section dimension of the dataset … prescreened variables. Short term outof-sample forecast of GDP growth is carried out with both models reproducing the real time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011193734
are considered. Generally, preliminary preparations of forecast corrections are shown to be able, under specified …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010903778