Since the seminal article of Bates and Granger (1969), a large number of theoretical and empirical studies have shown that pooling different forecasts of the same event tends to outperform individual forecasts in terms of forecast accuracy. However, the results remain heterogenous regarding the...

This paper analyzes the mechanics of VAR forecast pooling and quantifies the forecast performance under varying conditions. To fill the gap between empirical and purely theoretical research we run a Monte Carlo study and simulate the data from different New Keynesian DSGE models. We find that...

Price stability is widely recognised as the primary goal of modern monetary policy, and the management of private sector inflation expectations has become an essential channel through which this goal is achieved. This evaluation aims to improve the understanding of how the sensitivity of private...

We assess the transmission of monetary policy shocks on oil prices using a VAR model. We identify monetary policy and financial activity shocks disentangled from demand and oil supply shocks using sign restrictions. We obtain the following main findings. (i) Monetary policy and financial...

This paper presents a generalized two-step maximum likelihood estimation method for partially identified vector autoregressive models. We suggest a likelihood ratio test for over-identification in a sub-system and derive the asymptotics for impulse responses and forecast-error variance...

This paper deals with an important aspect of Tunisian economic and political decisions related to the opportunity for currency convertibility. Tunisia has established its current currency convertibility and has taken steps to achieve full convertibility of the dinar by gradually removing capital...

This paper examines the nature of aid projections in IMF programs with low-income countries. On average, IMF projections of net aid increased sharply in the first year of programs but tapered off in subsequent years. Projections were also significantly more optimistic in countries with low...

The Kangoye (2013, TDE) findings on the negative nexus between foreign aid unpredictability and governance could seriously affect debates in academic and policy making circles. Using the theoretical underpinnings of the celebrated Eubank (2012, JDS) literature, we first confirm Kangoye’s...

The Kangoye (2013, TDE) findings on the negative nexus between foreign aid unpredictability and governance could seriously affect debates in academic and policy making circles. Using the theoretical underpinnings of the celebrated Eubank (2012, JDS) literature, we first confirm Kangoye’s...

The Kangoye (2013, TDE) findings on the negative nexus between foreign aid unpredictability and governance could seriously affect debates in academic and policy making circles. Using the theoretical underpinnings of the celebrated Eubank (2012, JDS) literature, we first confirm Kangoye’s...