Rietz (1988) and Barro (2006) subject consumption and dividends to rare disasters in the growth rate. We extend their framework and subject consumption and dividends to rare disasters in the growth persistence. We model growth persistence by means of two hidden types of economic slowdowns:...

This paper proposes a novel regression-based approach to the estimation of Gaussian dynamic term structure models that avoids numerical optimization. This new estimator is an asymptotic least squares estimator defined by the no-arbitrage conditions upon which these models are built. We discuss...

We provide a decomposition of nominal yields into real yields, expectations of future inflation and inflation risk premiums when real bonds or inflation swaps are unavailable or unreliable due to their relative illiquidity. We combine nominal yields with surveys of inflation forecasts within a...

Most central banks effect changes to their target or policy rate in discrete increments (e.g., multiples of 0.25%) following public announcements on scheduled dates. Still, for most applications, researchers rely on the assumption that the policy rate changes linearly with economic conditions...

Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) show that (i) lagged forward rates improve the predictability of annual bond returns, adding to current forward rates, and that (ii) a Markovian model for monthly forward rates cannot generate the pattern of predictability in annual returns. These results stand as a...

We conduct Monte Carlo experiments to examine whether the Hansen and Jagannathan (1991) bound is a useful device for evaluating asset pricing models. Specifically, we use recently developed statistical tests, which are based on a 'distance' between the model and the Hansen-Jagannathan bound, to...

We introduce a new data set that comprises factor returns and returns of portfolios that are single- and double-sorted. We use this data set to perform asset-pricing tests for the german equity market. We test the standard cAPM, the Fama-French (1993) three-factor model, and the carhart (1997)...

This paper serves two purposes. First, we introduce a new data set on the German stock market which is publicly available to all researchers. It comprises factor returns (a market factor, a size factor, a book-to-market factor, and a momentum factor) as well as returns of portfolios which are...

Size and book to market ratio are both highly correlated with the average returns of common stocks. Fama and French (1993) argue that these effects are proxies for factors of risk. In this study, we try to test the three factor model of Fama and French and the Capital Asset Pricing Model on the...

In this study, we test the three factor model of Fama and French and the Characteristic Model of Daniel and Titman (1997) on The French Stock Market over July 1976 to June 2001 period. Stocks are ranked by size and book to market ratios and then by ex-ante HML, SMB or Mkt loadings. The...