This paper investigates the accuracy of forecasts from four DSGE models for inflation, output growth and the federal funds rate using a real-time dataset synchronized with the Fed's Greenbook projections. Conditioning the model forecasts on the Greenbook nowcasts leads to forecasts that are as...

This paper assesses the relative importance of external shocks in explaining the GDP growth in Sub-Saharan African countries. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with the Stochastic Search Variable Selection (SSVS) approach for ?ve countries in the region - Botswana, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritius, and...

This paper assesses the ability of different models to forecast key real and nominal U.S. monthly macroeconomic variables in a data-rich environment and from the perspective of a real-time forecaster, i.e. taking into account the real-time data revisions process and data flow. We find that for...

This paper assesses the transmission of monetary policy in a large Bayesian vector autoregression based on the approach proposed by Banbura, Giannone and Reichlin (2010). The paper analyzes the impact of monetary policy shocks in the United States and Canada not only on a range of domestic...

In this paper, we examine the role of global and domestic credit supply shocks in macroeconomic fluctuations for Emerging Markets. For this purpose, we impose a set of zero and sign restrictions within a medium-scale Bayesian Vector Auto-Regressive model. Quarterly data from South Africa and G-7...

I use a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the impact of monetary and technology shocks on the euro area stock market in 1987-2005. I find an important role for technology shocks, but not monetary shocks, in explaining variations in real stock prices. The identification...

The standard way to obtain the equation of New Keynesian Phillips curve is to linearize the equilibrium conditions of the Calvo model around a steady state with zero inflation. This approach is appropriate only in the low-inflation economics. This paper considers New Keynesian Phillips curve...

This paper assesses the ability of dierent models to forecast key real and nominal U.S. monthly macroeconomic variables in a data-rich environment from the perspective of a realtime forecaster, i.e. taking into account the real-time data revisions process and data ow. We nd that for the real...

We analyse nominal exchange rate and price dynamics after risk premium shocks with short-term interest rates constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB). In a small-open-economy DSGE model, temporary risk premium shocks lead to shifts of the exchange rate and the price level if a central bank...

We examine the impact of large scale asset purchase announcements of government bonds on real GDP and the CPI in the United Kingdom and the United States with a Bayesian VAR, estimated on monthly data from 2009M3 to 2014M5. We identify an asset purchase announcement shock with four different...