Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.

Remarks at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting, New York City.

Remarks at the Barclays 16th Annual Global Inflation-Linked Conference, New York City.

Remarks at the at the Society of American Business Editors and Writers Fall Conference, City University of New York, Graduate School of Journalism, New York City.

We propose a simple saving-based measure of the cyclical component in GDP. The measure is motivated by the prediction that the representative consumer changes savings in response to temporary deviations of income from its stochastic trend, while satisfying a present-value budget constraint. To...