China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to...

This paper is aimed at analysing the decision of the Chinese central bank to reform the exchange rate of the national currency and to gauge the effects of this change in regime on the Chinese economy and the world currency markets. Although many nations have been largely disappointed by the...

Summary. This is an extended working paper version of the paper that appeared in Economic Theory. It paper compares the merits of alternative exchange rate regimes in small open economies where financial intermediaries perform a real allocative function, there are multiple reserve requirements,...

This paper examines the intentions and outturns of central bank policies in Europefrom the collapse of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates until the start ofEMU in 1999. It focuses on the lessons that can be drawn from the three dominant policy strategies of money targeting,...

This paper presents a simple model of how a small open economy can undervalue its real exchange rate using its capital account policies. The paper presents several properties of such policies, and proposes a rule of thumb to assess their welfare cost. The model is applied to an analysis of...

Among the Central-Eastern Europe countries which joined the European Union in 2004 only three – the smallest (Slovenia, Slovakia and Estonia) – joined the Eurozone. Within these economies the process of currency integration was diversified in respect to their previously used systems of...

Among the Central-Eastern Europe countries which joined the European Union in 2004 only three – the smallest (Slovenia, Slovakia and Estonia) – joined the Eurozone. Within these economies the process of currency integration was diversified in respect to their previously used systems of...

This paper is motivated by the popular view that the surge in China’s foreign exchange reserves is due to a distortionary exchange rate policy aimed at keeping the real exchange rate undervalued to support export-led growth. It undertakes an in-depth empirical investigation to quantify how...

This paper estimates switching autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (SWARCH) time series models for weekly returns of nine Asian forward exchange rates. We find two regimes with different volatility levels, whereby each regime displays considerable persistence. Our analysis provides...

This paper estimates switching autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SWARCH) time series models for weekly returns of nine Asian forward exchange rates. We find two regimes with different volatility levels, whereby each regime displays considerable persistence. Our analysis provides...