This thesis consists of four papers concerning modelling of count data and tourism demand. For three of the papers the focus is on the integer-valued autoregressive moving average model class (INARMA), and especially on the INAR(1) model. The fourth paper studies the interaction between...

A new simple formula is found to correct the underestimation of the standard deviation for total lead time demand when using simple exponential smoothing. This new formula allows one to see readily the significant size of the underestimation of the traditional formula and can easily be...

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

Let X1,X2,...Xn be i.i.d. N-dimensional random variables having an unknown support of probability density denoted G; we suppose that G belongs to a functional class "g" of compact sets with smooth upper surface called boundary fragments. The problem consists in testing the hypotheses G=Go...

Procedures for estimating a linear single-equation model by means of panel data with errors-in-variables are considered. To eliminate fixed individual heterogeneity, the equation is differenced across one or more than one periods. The differenced equations can be estimated by using as...

This paper takes a computationnaly simple LS approach to develop a more efficient estimation procedure, which we call Residual Augmented Least Square (RALS), than OLS when the errors are not normally distributed. The efficiency gain is from manipulating the higher moment conditions implied by...

How detrimental is inflation to growth in South Africa? At what level? Motivated by the adoption of inflation targeting by many countries, this paper sets out to empirically determine the threshold level of inflation in South Africa. This study adopts quarterly time series data spanning over the...

There are several theories about the causes of inflation but none of them is capable of explaining the phenomenon in all cases. We started with an overview of the main theories. In the particular case of Venezuela, it seems that the inflationary phenomenon responds to structural factors rather...

Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) Estimators are derived for Reduced Rank Regression Models, the Error Corrections Cointegration Model (ECCM) and the Incomplete Simultaneous Equations Model (INSEM). The GMM (2SLS) estimators of the cointegrating vector in the ECCM are shown to have normal...

: Review of economic developments in Iran over the past four decades shows that oil revenues have deep and wide impact on economic indicators. The Two channels which oil price changes directly or indirectly affect inflation as the most important Economic variables are: increase in demand (mainly...