This is the sixth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this...

In this paper, the distinction between nominal and real income is highlighted by positing the existence of an imaginary “real dollar store.” In this store, all items are sold at a price of one dollar in the base year and the price of each is indexed to the cost of living. Hence, such...

This paper presents a simple structural model of inflation adapted for Nigeria based on the methodology of Berg, Karam, and Laxton. This approach allows different policy options to be considered systematically in a baseline forecasting exercise. The development and calibration of this model are...

Uruguay has consolidated economic gains, supported by strong macroeconomic policies and a broadly favorable external environment. Growth has exceeded expectations, unemployment has reached record lows, and poverty has continued to fall, while economic vulnerabilities have been significantly...

The staff report for the 2006 Article IV Consultation on Botswana highlights economic developments and monetary and exchange rate policy. Botswana’s growth has been fueled by continued increases in diamond production; and real diamond output is projected to level off, and then decline...

This 2005 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic activity in Jamaica has been adversely affected by shocks. Real GDP contracted sharply in late 2004 following the devastating effects of Hurricane Ivan. Thereafter, while output recovered, it was dampened by the poor performance of...

The Serbian economy has continued to grow strongly, but external imbalances have widened along with vulnerabilities. To contain domestic demand, fiscal surpluses are needed, until the benefits of structural reforms are reaped. Low inflation should be entrenched by adoption of inflation targeting...

Robust GDP growth, declining unemployment, low and stable inflation, and a string of fiscal and current account surpluses -- it's a record to be envied. These outcomes in Canada owe much to sound macroeconomic policies, as well as to a favorable external environment. This book focuses on these...