Using empirical evidence from panel analysis of current account dynamics and of bilateral trade balances, the paper argues that the large German current account surplus during the 2000s can be explained by an increasing gap between productivity growth in manufacturing vis-à-vis services. Such a...

Stylized facts suggest that output volatility in OECD countries has declined in recent years. However, the causes and the nature of this decline have so far been analyzed mainly for the United States. In this paper, we analyze whether structural breaks in the dynamics and the volatility of the...

A simple econometric framework is presented linking current account balances of euro area countries to intra and extra euro area competitiveness, cyclical positions, fiscal positions and the oil price. The framework is then used to cyclically-adjust observed current account balances and...

It is not easy to untangle the logic that in the past led to creation of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and that is currently guiding the prevailing Eurozone (EZ) policies. Although lacking the right institutions, which can be seen as the ultimate root of its crisis, the ten years of the EMU...

The aim of the paper is to unbundle the main economic variables involved in the European Crisis and clarify their reciprocal relationship. The variables considered are: unemployment, inflation, consumptions, investments and current accounts. We use annual, quarterly and monthly data, until 2012,...

Germany and the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia (the CE4) have been in a process of deepening economic integration which has lead to the development of a dynamic supply chain within Europe—the Germany-Central European Supply Chain (GCESC). Model-based simulations suggest two key...

Since changes in import prices feed into consumer prices and thus might affect monetary policy decisions, policymakers need to establish whether or not German importers’ long-run pricing behaviour has changed. Of particular interest are any shifts in the importance of cost passthrough and...

Transcript of an interview with Roland Vaubel, who discusses the Euro as a creature of politics. He explains the particular political machinations behind its history, current state, and likely future.

The current large current account imbalances in the Euro zone reflect persistent diverging trends between the core and the peripheral countries, which were paradoxically reinforced by the very same introduction of the Euro. The reduction in the credit spreads and the increase in capital flows...