It is common in empirical macroeconomics to fit vector autoregressive (VAR) models to construct estimates of impulse responses. An important preliminary step in impulse response analysis is the selection of the VAR lag order. In this paper, we compare the six lag-order selection criteria most...

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models have emerged as a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics, but suffer from the large number of parameters employed and the resulting estimation uncertainty associated with their impulse responses. In this paper we propose...

We consider cointegration rank estimation for a p-dimensional Fractional Vector Error Correction Model. We propose a new two-step procedure which allows testing for further long-run equilibrium relations with possibly different persistence levels. The fi?rst step consists in estimating the...

Accepted for publication in the <I>Journal of Business & Economic Statistics</I>.<P> We consider cointegration rank estimation for a p-dimensional Fractional Vector Error Correction Model. We propose a new two-step procedure which allows testing for further long-run equilibrium relations with possibly...</p></i>

It is emphasized that the shocks in structural vector autoregressions are only identified up to sign and it is pointed out that this feature can result in very misleading confidence intervals for impulse responses if simulation methods such as Bayesian or bootstrap methods are used. The...

In this paper, we investigate the monetary transmission mechanism through interest rate and real effective exchange rate channels, for five South-Eastern European countries, namely Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Romania and Turkey. Recent unit root and cointegration techniques in the presence of...

Skepticism toward traditional identifying assumptions based on exclusion restrictions has led to a surge in the use of structural VAR models in which structural shocks are identified by restricting the sign of the responses of selected macroeconomic aggregates to these shocks. Researchers...

In this paper we use multivariate cointegration analysis to estimate electricity demand elasticities at the subsectoral industry level. This enables us to reap the benefits of lower heterogeneity within the electricity-consuming sectors investigated and of retaining additional information...

In this paper we modify and extend the framework of Diebold and Yilmaz (2011) to quantify spillovers between sovereign credit markets and banks in the euro area. Spillovers are estimated recursively from a vector autoregressive model of daily changes in credit default swap (CDS) spreads with...

In vector autoregressive analysis confidence intervals for individual impulse responses are typically reported to indicate the sampling uncertainty in the estimation results. A range of methods are reviewed and a new proposal is made for constructing joint confidence bands, given a pre-specified...