It is common in empirical macroeconomics to fit vector autoregressive (VAR) models to construct estimates of impulse responses. An important preliminary step in impulse response analysis is the selection of the VAR lag order. In this paper, we compare the six lag-order selection criteria most...

In this paper we study various methods for detecting the co integrating rank as the number of variables gets large. We show that the use of standard tools will always lead to misleading inferences in such settings due to excessive size distortions. Particularly the LR test tends to produce too...

Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models have emerged as a dominant research strategy in empirical macroeconomics, but suffer from the large number of parameters employed and the resulting estimation uncertainty associated with their impulse responses. In this paper we propose...

We consider cointegration rank estimation for a p-dimensional Fractional Vector Error Correction Model. We propose a new two-step procedure which allows testing for further long-run equilibrium relations with possibly different persistence levels. The fi?rst step consists in estimating the...

We derive the parameter restrictions that a standard equity market model implies for a bivariate vector autoregression for stock prices and dividends, and we show how to test these restrictions using likelihood ratio tests.  The restrictions, which imply that stock returns are unpredictable,...

Accepted for publication in the <I>Journal of Business & Economic Statistics</I>.<P> We consider cointegration rank estimation for a p-dimensional Fractional Vector Error Correction Model. We propose a new two-step procedure which allows testing for further long-run equilibrium relations with possibly...</p></i>

The most common mode of inference for order restricted models is likelihood inference. See T. Robertson, F. T. Wright, and R. L. Dykstra (1988, "Order Restricted Statistical Inference," Wiley, New York) for an excellent treatment of inference in such models. In this paper we demonstrate that...

The central idea of this study is to analyse the moving average timing model that improves the risk-adjusted returns across various asset classes. This quantitative method tests Bombay Stock Exchange Index since 2000 on other diverse and publicly traded asset class indices, including the...

I consider the problem of detecting and predicting regime switching behaviour in the context of Indian Stock Market data. First I discuss detection of volatility change points using the LRT and the Binary Segmentation procedure of Vostrikova (1981). The detected volatility changes are correlated...