This paper developes a theoretical model to analyse the impact of uncertainty about the true state of the economy on … uncertainty on interest rates was most marked in 1983, when uncertainty increased interest rates by up to 140 basis points, in … 1990-91, when uncertainty reduced interest rates by up to 80 basis points and in 1996-2001 when uncertainty reduced …

heteroskedasticity of the errors is exploited, in a MGARCH, to obtain endogenously estimated measures of uncertainty. A two steps …

heteroskedasticity of the errors is exploited, in a MGARCH, to obtain endogenously estimated measures of uncertainty. A two steps …

heteroskedasticity of the errors is exploited, in a MGARCH, to obtain endogenously estimated measures of uncertainty. A two steps …

We study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity. Fiscal … consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about the policy mix and timing of such budgetary adjustment. To … evaluate the consequences of this increased uncertainty, we first estimate tax and spending processes for the U.S. that allow …