As part of a study aimed at estimating suburban highway needs for year 2005, models were developed for forecasting daily vehicle miles of travel (DVMT) for urban areas and its distribution by highway functional class, urban location, and urban area size. A regression model combining both time...

Asymptotic analyses of unit root tests in autoregressive time series are usually based on the assumptions that the number of unit roots is known and that the remaining characteristic roots are stable. The last assumption seems not to be necessary. This is stated more precisely for two examples.

This paper puts forth a concept of Adptivety Rational Equilibrium (A.R.E) where agents base decisions upon predictions of future values of endogenous variables whose actual values are determined by equilibrium equations.

Methods for scoring ordered classifications in ordered statistical analysis are reviewed. These contrast with model based approaches through generalised linear models. The practical empirical advantages of scoring functions are developed.

This paper studies properties of stochastic objective functions, that is, objective functions which can be written as the expected value of a payoff function.

We decompose a stationary Markov process (X^t) as: X^t = a^o + [Sommation from j=1 to infinity) a^j Z^(j,t), where the Z^j 's processes admit ARMA specifications. These decompositions are deduced from a nonlinear canonical decomposition of the joint distribution of (X^t, X^(t-1)).

A brief overview is given of some problems in econometric model building. We discuss, by example, the concept of a time series, a random walk, and integrated variable and the notion of cointegration and common trends.

The appearance of the normal density remained unexplained in Mertens and Zamir's proof: it appeared there as the solution of a differential equation. Our proof however justifies this normal density as a consequence of a generalisation of the CLT discussed in the second part of this paper.