Default prior choices fixing Zellner's g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and proposes to address it by a hyper-g prior, whose data-dependent shrinkage adapts...

A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability predictions of exchange rate movements. In particular, a range of new predictive performance measures is identified to highlight specific expressions of strengths and weaknesses in...

An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability-judgement accuracy analyses illustrated no clear overall...

Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages,...

This paper examines the relative performance of three different systems of forecasting movements in macro building prices. The three systems analysed are (1) the Building Cost Information Service system, (2) the Davis, Langdon & Everest system, and (3) Akintoye and Skitmore's reduced-form...

Dental personnel planning is important in formulating policy in dental education, dental public health programs, and dental care delivery systems. The purpose of this literature review is to illustrate the use of dentist-to-population ratios, need-based models, and demand-based models in the...

ERS provides economic information on the near-term agricultural outlook and on longrun projections. Here is an overview of efforts to improve such information through comprehensive quantitative models. The various models incorporate intercommodity relationships within agriculture, aggregate farm...

This Selected Issues Paper on Iran reviews that monetary factors are the main determinants of inflation in the country. Government spending out of oil revenues leads to large liquidity injections that the central bank accommodates owing to its efforts to prevent a significant nominal...

External demand was the main driver of growth in Thailand in 2006 and 2007. However, WEO projections indicate moderating foreign demand in 2008, with U.S. growth being revised downwards to reflect the turmoil in housing and credit markets, and high oil prices. While the share of Thai exports to...

Earlier research has shown that it is very hard to outperform the random walk model with respect to forecasting exchange rates. In this paper we propose an extension to the regular regime-switching model in order to capture the exchange rate dynamics. The model is extended by including...