Default prior choices fixing Zellner's g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and proposes to address it by a hyper-g prior, whose data-dependent shrinkage adapts...

A procedure is proposed for examining different aspects of performance for judgemental directional probability predictions of exchange rate movements. In particular, a range of new predictive performance measures is identified to highlight specific expressions of strengths and weaknesses in...

An experiment is reported which compares directional forecasting performance of experts, novices and simple statistical models over three time horizons on a task involving probabilistic forecasts of exchange rate movements. Probability-judgement accuracy analyses illustrated no clear overall...

Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages,...

This paper examines the relative performance of three different systems of forecasting movements in macro building prices. The three systems analysed are (1) the Building Cost Information Service system, (2) the Davis, Langdon & Everest system, and (3) Akintoye and Skitmore's reduced-form...

Dental personnel planning is important in formulating policy in dental education, dental public health programs, and dental care delivery systems. The purpose of this literature review is to illustrate the use of dentist-to-population ratios, need-based models, and demand-based models in the...

Use of Macroeconometric models has by now assumed a measure of universality as an unavoidable aid to forecasting and policy analysis; challenges and controversies spread over more than two decades notwithstanding.1 While such models are typically designed and utilised for dealing with short term...

Earlier research has shown that it is very hard to outperform the random walk model with respect to forecasting exchange rates. In this paper we propose an extension to the regular regime-switching model in order to capture the exchange rate dynamics. The model is extended by including...