This paper, based on Kaldor's main contributions, discusses the specificities in the catch up process of developing economies with high degree of structural heterogeneity. The theoretical model developed shows that developing economies, when modernizing the domestic versus external stock of...

Unlike in Asia, the manufacturing sector has not (yet) become a driver of structural change in Africa. One common explanation is that the natural resource-focus of many African economies leads to Dutch disease effects. To test this argument for the case of newly found oil in Ghana we develop a...

This paper contributes to the literature on balance-of-payments-constrained growth by providing an innovative empirical evaluation of a disaggregated version of the so-called Thirlwall's Law derived from a Pasinettian multisectoral framework. After estimating sectoral elasticities of exports and...

Brazilian economy was the most dynamic in terms of growth among developed and developing economies from post-War until 1980, when a severe external constraint interrupted this trend. We propose in this paper a model, based on Kaldor, where capital accumulation, technological gap and long run...

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflation using a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number of macroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used...

The goal of this paper is to develop formal tests to evaluate the relative in-sample performance of two competing, misspecified, non-nested models in the presence of possible data instability. Compared to previous approaches to model selection, which are based on measures of global performance,...

We derive the limiting null distributions of the standard and OLS-based CUSUM- tests for a structural change of the coefficients of a linear regression model in the context of long-memory disturbances. We show that both tests behave fundamentally different in a long-memory environment, as...

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities. The methods include Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Cramer-von Mises-type tests for the correct specification of predictive densities robust to dynamic mis-specification. The novelty is that the tests can detect mis-specification in the...

It is standard in applied work to select forecasting models by ranking candidate models by their prediction mean squared error (PMSE) in simulated out-of-sample (SOOS) forecasts. Alternatively, forecast models may be selected using information criteria (IC). We compare the asymptotic and...

Nonlinearity, and regime-switching behavior in particular, and structural change have often been perceived as competing alternatives to linearity. In this paper we propose a model, based on the principle of smooth transition, that allows for regime-switching behavior in conjunction with...