This paper is concerned with the use of regression methods to predict values of a response variable when that variable is naturally ordered. An application to the prediction of student examination performance is provided and it is argued that, although individual scores are unlikely to be well...

In this note we provide justification for some Monte Carlo results presented by Elder and Kennedy (2001). In particular we show that the severe size distortions observed by Elder and Kennedy are due to the presence of nuisance parameters in the data generation process, but ignored in the test...

type="main" xml:id="jtsa12078-abs-0001"The parameters of integer autoregressive models with Poisson, or negative binomial innovations can be estimated by maximum likelihood where the prediction error decomposition, together with convolution methods, is used to write down the likelihood function....

In the course of the analysis of time series of counts the need to test for the presence of a dependence structure arises regularly. Suitable tests for this purpose are analysed in this paper. Their size and power properties are evaluated under various alternatives among which the...

Many macroeconomic time series exhibit non-stationary behaviour. When modelling such series an important problem is to assess the nature of this non-stationary behaviour. Initial interest centred on two types of linear non-stationary models, namely those for which the removal of a trend induces...

This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy to industrial output in the UK. In order to capture asymmetries, a system of threshold equations is considered. However, unlike previous research, endogenous threshold parameters are allowed to be different for each equation. This approach...

The aim of this paper is to examine the application of measures of persistence in a range of time-series models nested in the framework of Cramer (1961). This framework is a generalization of the Wold (1938) decomposition for stationary time-series which, in addition to accommodating the...