There are two features of exchange rate behaviour that are difficult to explain with conventional theoretical explanations. First, exchange rates are very volatile relative to fundamentals, and, second, departures from ‘fair value’ are very persistent. In this paper the implications...

There is a long literature examining the theoretical relationship between the rate of inflation and the size of the capital stock in an economy. This literature has produced varied predictions about the effects of inflation on the capital stock. In this paper we present some time series evidence...

In this paper we contrast a number of univariate models of Canadian GDP. Our preferred models are used to provide a business cycle chronology for Canada, which is compared with some existing, more judgmentally determined chronologies. We find that a simple, "two quarters of negative growth" rule...

This paper quantifies the costs of mitigating exchange rate volatility within the context of a flexible inflation targeting central bank. Within a standard linearquadratic formulation of inflation targeting, we append a term that penalises deviations in the exchange rate to the central bank’s...

In a recent paper Giugale and Korobow (2000) present evidence to suggest the time that output takes to return to its trend following a negative shock is faster under a flexible exchange rate regime than under a fixed exchange rate. In this paper VAR models are used to provide empirical evidence...

This paper presents evidence on whether Hong Kong's currency board arrangement, in place since 1983, has affected the volatility of real macroeconomic variables. Simple evidence on the relative volatilities of relevant macroeconomic variables, pre and post,1983 is presented, before a more formal...