Daily data on short-term interest rates are used to show how changes in Federal Reserve operating procedures have affected the term structure. Yield spreads were helpful in predicting short-term interest rate movements during the nonborrowed reserves targeting period (1979-82), but not during...

This paper develops generalized method-of-moments tests for the rationality of earnings per share forecasts made by individual stock analysts. We fail to reject the hypothesis of rationality as long as we take into account two complications: (1) the correlation in a given period of analysts'...

Recent experiments on mixed-strategy play in experimental games reject the hypothesis that subjects play a mixed strategy even when that strategy is the unique Nash equilibrium prediction. However, in a three-person matching-pennies game played with perfect monitoring and complete payoff...

We report on experiments that tested the predictions of competing theories of learning in games. Experimental subjects played a version of the three-person matching-pennies game. The unique mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium of this game is locally unstable under naive Bayesian learning....

This research compares several approaches to inference in the multinomial probit model, based on Monte-Carlo results for a seven choice model. The experiment compares the simulated maximum likelihood estimator using the GHK recursive probability simulator, the method of simulated moments...

We describe how to recursively simulate choice probabilities in the multiperiod multinomial probit model using the GHK algorithm. We also provide GAUSS code to implement the method.