Recent experiments on mixed-strategy play in experimental games reject the hypothesis that subjects play a mixed strategy even when that strategy is the unique Nash equilibrium prediction. However, in a three-person matching-pennies game played with perfect monitoring and complete payoff...

We report on experiments that tested the predictions of competing theories of learning in games. Experimental subjects played a version of the three-person matching-pennies game. The unique mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium of this game is locally unstable under naive Bayesian learning....

This study examines stock price reactions, for both U.S. and Canadian softwood-lumber producers, to a series of events culminating in the 1986 Memorandum of Understanding under which Canada agreed to impose a 15 percent export tariff on lumber shipped to the United States. The authors' results...

This research compares several approaches to inference in the multinomial probit model, based on Monte-Carlo results for a seven choice model. The experiment compares the simulated maximum likelihood estimator using the GHK recursive probability simulator, the method of simulated moments...

Daily data on short-term interest rates are used to show how changes in Federal Reserve operating procedures have affected the term structure. Yield spreads were helpful in predicting short-term interest-rate movements during the nonborrowed reserves targeting period (1979-82) but not during the...

New evidence on the correlation between the cycle and the real wage is provided by using panel data to adjust for the aggregation cum selectivity bias that arises when those who move in and out of the work force over the cycle have systematically different unobserved permanent and transitory...