This paper studies the optimal growth of a developing economy that has a choice to expend a fixed amount of resource for a structural change that advances its production technology. It is shown that structural change is undertaken if capital stock is above a critical level. Economies undertaking...

The monthly salaries and allowances of Korean government employees are known in advance but vary greatly throughout the year. Using a Korean monthly panel data set, the present study examines how nondurable consumption expenditures in households headed by government employees respond to...

We examine how future real GDP growth relates to changes in the forecasted long-term average of discounted real oil prices and to changes in unanticipated fluctuations of real oil prices around the forecasts. Forecasts are conducted using a state-space oil market model, in which global real...

Identified vector autoregressive (VAR) models have become widely used on time series data in recent years, but finite sample inference for such models remains a challenge. In this study, we propose a conjugate prior for Bayesian analysis of normalized VAR models. Under the prior, the marginal...

We propose a Bayesian stochastic search approach to selecting restrictions on multivariate regression models where the errors exhibit deterministic or stochastic conditional volatilities. We develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that generates posterior restrictions on the...

During the late 1990s public pension funds across the United States accrued large actuarial surpluses. The seemingly flush conditions of the pension funds led legislators in most states to substantially improve retirement benefits for public workers, including teachers. In this study we examine...