This article develops and estimates a dynamic arbitrage-free model of the current forward curve as the sum of (i) an unconditional component, (ii) a maturity-specific component and (iii) a date-specific component. The model combines features of the Preferred Habitat model, the Expectations...

Dean Foster and Peyton Young explain a dramatic problem in the hedge fund industry that allows hedge fund managers to profit hugely while exposing their investors to great unknown risks.

Players are rational if they always choose best replies given their beliefs. They are good predictors if the difference between their beliefs and the distribution of the others' actual strategies goes to zero over time. Learning is deterministic if beliefs are fully determined by the initial...

A foundational assumption in economics is that people are rational -- they choose optimal plans of action given their predictions about future states of the world In games of strategy this means that each players?strategy should be optimal given his or her prediction of the opponents?strategies...