This paper presents Indonesia’s 2005 Article IV Consultation and Third Post-Program Monitoring discussions. The economic strategy has produced positive results over time. Economic growth has gained momentum year by year, inflation has been substantially reduced, and the external position...

This paper assesses Ecuador’s 2003 Article IV Consultation, a Request for a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), and Approval of an Exchange Restriction. The main objectives of the fiscal program are to address immediate liquidity constraints and to bring expenditure growth under control,...

The Czech economy has turned in a solid performance, and the medium-term prospects are good. The short-term outlook is positive, although downside risks are significant The outlook for low underlying inflation leaves scope for monetary policy to continue to support growth. The government's...

In contrast to the early-warning system literature, we find that currency and debt crises are not closely linked in emerging markets. We find that after 1994, credit ratings predict debt crises but fail to anticipate currency crises. When debt crises are defined as sovereign distress-when...

This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative...

This is the 2007 Edition of the only book in print in the world about the Single Global Currency, and is the only book in the world priced in 143 currencies (down from 147 in the 2006 edition.).This number is significant, as it's the number of currencies required among the 192 U.N. members to...

This staff report discusses Seychelles 2013 Article IV Consultation, Seventh Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criterion. The repayment of domestic debt, a preference for foreign financing, and shallow domestic financial markets have resulted in...

The 2007 Article IV Consultation explains Romania’s fiscal and income policies and financial sector issues. The economic outlook is clouded by a widening current account imbalance and the risk of a resurgence of inflation pressures, as a result of strong domestic demand that is being...

Seychelles's strong stabilization efforts has helped the economy to overcome debt crisis and global recession under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). But the authorities need to address monetary policy trade-offs, and financial sector challenges exist. Executive Directors welcomed Seychelles's...

This 2006 Article IV Consultation highlights that macroeconomic results for Romania were not as strong in 2005 compared with 2004 on account of both internal and external factors. Growth slowed to 4.1 percent in 2005, with agricultural output falling as a result of floods, and industrial output...