This paper uses a threshold autoregressive (TAR) framework to assess the relative importance of structural breaks and asymmetric persistence in accounting for the post-war unemployment experience. In comparing unemployment patterns across time periods and countries, we take the US as a...

We employ a two-regime, nonlinear model and more than a century of data to investigate the time series behavior of the Samp;P Composite price-dividends and price-earnings ratios. On average, the ratios display continuation fuelled by investor sentiment in bull markets but they adjust toward...

This paper sheds light on US stock price deviations from fundamentals by analyzing the time-series dynamics of post-1870 Samp;P valuation ratios. It employs a non-linear, two-regime framework that allows for different behavior over phases of the stock market cycle. Persistence in the ratios...

This paper explores the long run behaviour and short run dynamics of quarterly UK real interest rates, 1950-1999, in a threshold autoregressive framework. Using bootstrap LR extensions of the Enders and Granger (1998) threshold unit root and asymmetry tests, it finds support for sign and...

We divide the time series of aggregate valuation into bull and bear market phases to test for momentum and reversal, respectively. Our results are consistent with price-earnings and price-dividends displaying continuation by drifting upwards in bull markets irrespective of fundamentals. Such...

The short-run dynamics of German mark and US dollar real exchange rates are investigated for a panel of 19 OECD economies in a vector error correction framework for the 1973-96 period. The novel persistence profiles approach of Pesaran and Shin (1996) indicates that the effect of system-wide...

This paper proposes an efficient estimation method for Band Threshold Autoregressive (Band-TAR) models. Standard maximum-likelihood algorithms cannot be used here because the log-likelihood function is not differentiable with respect to the threshold parameter, and one commonly uses a grid...