While there has been a lot of discussion about prediction markets, including several articles in Foresight, the empirical record of their use in corporations (CPM) is meager, with hardly a handful of cases published. Robert and Ramona look at the track record of CPM with a skeptical eye,...

Rieg and Schoder reply to the article mentioned, published in the same issue of Foresight. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011

Purpose – Accounting and decision making rely heavily on forecasts. For several reasons, we should expect ongoing increases in forecasting accuracy. The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis of improved forecasts over time. Design/methodology/approach – The paper analyzes original...

Over the past 15-20 years, improvements in forecasting methods, deepening practical experience, and increasing computing power should have allowed companies to significantly improve their forecasting accuracy. In this paper Robert Rieg examines the changes in forecasting accuracy of a large...