This paper investigates the issue of rational expectations using inflation forecasts from the Survey of Professional … estimated time-varying bias can be used to improve the SPF and Green Book inflation forecast performance by at least 13.4%. This … under- and over predictions of actual inflation. …

survey data of inflation expectations to estimate the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters (2007) and compare its …

In this paper we study how inflation expectations are formed and whether these change due to the occurrence of policy … home inflation and report confidence intervals. At three points in time during our experiments, we also ask our … 6750 home inflation point forecasts and confidence intervals. We find that: (1) inflation expectations are seldom rational …