Commodity prices are expected to remain weak for the remainder of 2014 and, perhaps through much of 2015. Crude oil has seen one of the sharpest declines, down more than 20 percent to $83/barrel (bbl) on October 15 from this year’s high of $108/bbl in mid-June. Agricultural prices have...

Geopolitical concerns in Iraq and Ukraine/Russia earlier in the year put upward pressure on oil prices during the second quarter. As tensions moderate, oil prices are expected to decline in 2015. Metal prices eased during the 2014Q2 due to supply response from earlier investments and weakening...

With the exception of energy, all the key commodity price indices declined significantly in 2013. Fertilizer prices led the decline, down 17.4 percent from 2012, followed by precious metals (down almost 17 percent), agriculture (-7.2 percent), and metals (-5.5 percent). Crude oil prices (World...

The key commodity price indices were broadly stable during 2014. Energy prices changed little, only 0.4 higher than 2013; agricultural prices increased 1.8 percent on weather-related concerns and metal prices declined 3.2 percent on Chinese demand weakness. Agricultural prices are projected to ease...

Russia’s economy contracted 4.6 percent in the second quarter, year-on-year, after a 2.2 percent contraction in the first quarter, but in June the pace of contraction slowed. Russia’s second quarter balance of payment remained stable despite a weaker trade balance as the current account...

In June, the European Council extended EU economic sanctions against Russia for another six months while Russia extended its food import ban against Western countries for a year. A fluid situation on global financial markets and yet again lower growth prospects led to oil prices losing ground in...

With the benefit of hindsight, this paper provides a fresh and comprehensive look at the causes of the 2014-16 collapse in oil prices and its impact on the global economy. It disentangles the contribution of supply and demand factors, assesses the impact on activity in oil exporters and oil...