This two-volume set brings together some of the most significant previously published articles by leading scholars in the field. The volumes investigate various aspects of financial forecasting including the forecasting of earnings, bankruptcy, stock prices, interest rates, exchange rates and...

This paper evaluates estimates of the variance of U.S. inflation based on popular conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) models, by comparing them with the variances of subjective probability distributions for inflation provided in the ASA-NBER surveys of U.S. economic forecasters. The results...

The expected error variance of a combined forecast is necessarily lower than that of an individual forecast, but in practice there may be considerable variation around these expected values. This paper introduces a measure of the benefit from combining, the probability of a reduction in error...

This paper introduces survey-based measures of expectations and uncertainties about income and real interest rates into an otherwise conventional consumption function. The survey dat a contribute more than conventional variables to the explanation of changes in consumption. The hypothesis that...

This paper tests the rationality of forecasts made by individuals who contribute to the Blue Chip consensus forecasting service and tries, by means of a questionnaire on forecasting methods, to establish why some forecasters appear more rational than others. Tests based on consensus forecasts...

Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two...