Garratt, Anthony; Mitchell, James; Vahey, Shaun P. - In: International Journal of Forecasting 30 (2014) 2, pp. 268-279
We propose a methodology for gauging the uncertainty in output gap nowcasts across a large number of commonly-deployed vector autoregressive (VAR) specifications for inflation and the output gap. Our approach utilises many output gap measures to construct ensemble nowcasts for inflation using a...