The strong consumption growth in a period of falling stock market and a moderate recession in the U.S. has sparked off a debate about the role of housing wealth as one of the determinants of consumption. The literature is divided over the issue whether the effect of change in the financial...

This paper presents a monthly indicator of real economic activity for historical accounting and real-time monitoring of business cycles in Turkey. Business conditions, an unobserved component implied by the interaction and co-movement of various macroeconomic variables, are related to a number...

We construct a framework for measuring economic activity in real time (e.g., minute-by-minute), using a variety of stock and flow data observed at mixed frequencies. Specifically, we propose a dynamic factor model that permits exact filtering, and we explore the efficacy of our methods both in a...

We construct a framework for measuring economic activity at high frequency, potentially in real time. We use a variety of stock and flow data observed at mixed frequencies (including very high frequencies), and we use a dynamic factor model that permits exact filtering. We illustrate the...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes external shocks and business cycle fluctuations in Mexico. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S. demand shocks—and other foreign disturbances—in explaining Mexican output fluctuations. It identifies the dynamic response of...

This paper reviews the international business cycle among Group of Seven (G-7) countries since 1973 from two angles. An examination of business cycle synchronization among these countries using simple descriptive statistics shows that synchronized slowdowns have been the norm rather than the...

This paper examines housing markets in selected European Union countries and investigates the degree of similarity in housing market responses to changes in underlying demand- and supply-side variables. This may help to suggest how EU housing markets may be affected by a single monetary policy...