"We propose an explanation for the demise of monetarism in the United States. We show that optimal monetary policy would lead to zero correlation between monetary aggregates and inflation if the effect of monetary aggregates on inflation is known precisely and to negative correlations if there...

This paper uses long-run equilibrium relationship between consumption and different components of wealth to estimate the effect of changes in housing wealth and financial wealth on consumption. By exploiting this long-run property, it has been shown that a dollar increase in housing wealth...

In this paper, we estimate expected return on housing by exploiting information from the variations in the consumption- wealth ratio. We combine a present-value model of consumption with an unobserved component model to express the excess consumption-assets ratio (consumption in excess of labor...

Using readily available indicators of the profitability, price, and availability of credit—the term spread, junk‐bond spread, and banks’ “willingness to lend” as reported by the Federal Reserve—we show that it is possible to significantly improve on the real‐time output and...

This paper studies the role of the real money gap — the deviation of real money balance from its long-run equilibrium level — for predicting inflation in India. Using quarterly data on manufacturing inflation from 1982 to 2007, we find that the real money gap is a significant predictor of...

This paper seeks to answer two questions in the context of the Indian economy. First, are all movements in food and energy prices transitory? Second, is there a significant relationship between permanent and transitory shocks to different components of the aggregate price level? Using monthly...

We undertake a real-time VAR analysis of the usefulness of the term spread, the junk-bond spread, the ISM's New Orders Index, and broker/dealer equity for predicting growth in non-farm employment. To get around the "apples and oranges" problem described by Koenig, Dolmas and Piger (2003), we...

We show that Howrey’s method for producing economic forecasts when data are subject to revision is easily generalized to handle the case where data are produced by a sophisticated statistical agency. The proposed approach assumes that government estimates are efficient with a finite lag. It...