Politik hat vielfach zum Ziel, das Verhalten von Wirtschaftssubjekten durch eine Veränderung der Rahmenbedingungen zu steuern. Bei der Politikfolgenabschätzung müssen deshalb Voraussagen gemacht werden, wie Menschen sich an veränderte ökonomische Bedingungen anpassen. Eine wichtige...

Abstract. In the 1980s and at beginning of the 1990s the debate on expectation formation mechanism was dominated by the rational expectation hypothesis. Later on, more interest was directed towards alternative approaches to expectations analysis, mainly based on the bounded rationality paradigm...

Economic modeling of financial markets attempts to model highly complex systems in which expectations can be among the dominant driving forces. It is necessary, then, to focus on how agents form expectations. We believe that they look for patterns, hypothesize, try, make mistakes, learn and...