After feedback, peopleãs recollections of judgments they made earlier differ systematically from their actual original judgments: Their recollection judgments are typically closer to the truth than the original judgments have been. It has been proposed that this phenomenon¨the so-called...

Distinguishing between risk and uncertainty, this paper draws on the psychological literature on heuristics to consider whether and when simpler approaches may out-perform more complex methods for modelling and regulating the financial system. We find that: (i) simple methods can sometimes...

Nearly a century ago, Frank Knight famously distinguished between risk and uncertainty with respect to the nature of decisions made in a business enterprise. He associated generating economic profit with making entrepreneurial decisions in the face of fundamental uncertainties. This uncertainty...

For a research program that counts improved empirical realism among its primary goals, it is surprising that behavioral economics appears indistinguishable from neoclassical economics in its reliance on ‘as-if ’ arguments. ‘As-if ’ arguments are frequently put forward in behavioral...