Simple statistical forecasting rules, which are usually simplifications of classical models, have been shown to make better predictions than more complex rules, especially when the future values of a criterion are highly uncertain. In this article, we provide evidence that some of the fast and...

I specify general criteria for models of bounded rationality and discuss specific models for satisficing inference. The task of these fast and frugal algorithms is to infer unknown features of their environment under the constraints of limited knowledge, limited time, and limited computational...

After feedback, peopleãs recollections of judgments they made earlier differ systematically from their actual original judgments: Their recollection judgments are typically closer to the truth than the original judgments have been. It has been proposed that this phenomenon¨the so-called...