We consider time series models in which the conditional mean of the response variable given the past depends on latent covariates. We assume that the covariates can be estimated consistently and use an iterative nonparametric kernel smoothing procedure for estimating the conditional mean...

We develop a portfolio risk model that uses high-frequency data to forecast the loss surface, which is the set of loss distributions at future time horizons. Our model uses a fully automated, semi-parametric fitting procedure that has its basis in extreme value statistics. We take account of...

We investigate the effectiveness of several well-known parametric and nonparametric event study test statistics with security price data from the major Asia-Pacific security markets. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation experiments with actual daily security returns data reveal that the parametric...

Copulas offer financial risk managers a powerful tool to model the dependence between the different elements of a portfolio and are preferable to the traditional, correlation-based approach. In this paper we show the importance of selecting an accurate copula for risk management. We extend...

This study investigates the impact of new information on the volatility of exchange rates. The impact of scheduled US and European macroeconomic news on the volatility of USD/EUR 5-minute returns was tested by using the Flexible Fourier Form method. The results were consistent with earlier...

In economic time series conditional heteroskedasticity and conditional non-normality may occur simultaneously. Well known examples include time series of financial returns. The present paper examines a new test for (generalized) autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in Monte Carlo...

The present paper proposes a model for the persistence of abnormal returns both at firm and industry levels, when longitudinal data for the profits of firms classiffied as industries are available. The model produces a two-way variance decomposition of abnormal returns: (a) at firm versus...

The present paper introduces new sign tests for testing for conditionally symmetric martingale-difference assumptions as well as for testing that conditional distributions of two (arbitrary) martingale-difference sequences are the same. Our analysis is based on the results that demonstrate that...