Futures markets are a potentially valuable source of information about market expectations. Exploiting this information … has proved difficult in practice, because the presence of a timevarying risk premium often renders the futures price a … be recovered by adjusting the futures price by the estimated risk premium, a common problem in applied work is that there …

flexibility and model averaging consistently outperform Iowa outlook estimates at all forecast horizons. Evidence from the … encompassing tests, which are highly stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts do provide … incremental information relative to Iowa. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast …