in the probit model the fact that the economy is already in a state of recession must be controlled for. The results of …

evidence in favor of the ones that allow for the possibility that the economy has experienced recurrent breaks. The recession … probabilities of these models provide a clearer classification of the business cycle into expansion and recession periods, and … superior performance in the ability to correctly call recessions and to avoid false recession signals. Overall, the sensitivity …

probability of recession varies with the yield spread. …

, Canada, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States) are in recession simultaneously. I pose two new research questions …