The main objective of this study is to highlight the importance of political instability, defined as frequent changes in and of government, in undermining the Russian exchange rate based stabilization program of the 1990s. The empirical evidence supports the significance of political instability...

(This abstract and the paper are in Turkish.) Ekonomik krizler; herhangi bir mal, hizmet, uretim faktoru veya doviz piyasasindaki fiyat ve/veya miktarlarda, kabul edilebilir bir degisme sinirinin otesinde gerceklesen siddetli dalgalanmalar olarak tanimlanabilir. Soz konusu krizlerin ortaya...

Loss of confidence is interpreted as an increase in the ambiguity experienced by investors who maximize Choquet Expected Utility. Currency crises are modelled to resemble bankruns. Using countries having fragile financial systems, a model of twin crises is obtained. An exogenous interim loss of...

When faced with a speculative attack, banks and governments often hesitate, attempting to withstand the attack but giving up after some time, suggesting they have some ex-ante uncertainty about the attack they will face. I model that uncertainty as arising from incomplete information about...

The aim of this article is to assess whether a fiscal sustainability indicator (FSI) can be used as an early warning indicator for predicting the probability that a currency crisis occurs. Using the FSI developed by Croce and Juan-Ramón (2003) and two different definitions of currency crisis, a...

The rst generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of rst generation models are not robust...

The first generation models of currency crises have often been criticized because they predict that, in the absence of very large triggering shocks, currency attacks should be predictable and lead to small devaluations. This paper shows that these features of first generation models are not...

This article provides a general and robust empirical examination of speculative pressure on various exchange rate regimes using an unusually large panel of monthly data for developed countries, analysed within the framework of Limited- Dependent Variable (LDV) models with various innovations and...

This paper examines the viability or appropriateness of two polar solutions, especially free-floating regime for developing countries. To do so, we investigate the Korean financial markets, which provide interesting case, utilizing multivariate GARCH and various VSR (Vector Auto-Regression)...

The financial crises in emerging markets in 1997-1999 were preceded by financial liberalisation, rapid surges in capital inflows, increased levels of indebtedness, and then sudden capital outflows. The study contains four essays that extend the different generations of crisis literature and...