Real interest rates in the euro area fluctuated sharply between —4.2% and +7.7% over the past half century. A key question for monetary policy makers and economic agents is: What is the „neutral,” „equilibrium” or „natural” real interest rate to which current rates might eventually...

En este artículo se estima para Colombia la tasa de interés natural (TIN) para el período 1982-2005, con base en las metodologías propuestas por Laubach y Williams (2001) y Mésonnier y Renne (2004). Un modelo neokeynesiano es la base de la estimación de la TIN de “mediano plazo” como...

En este artículo se estima para Colombia la tasa de interés natural (TIN) para el período 1982-2005, con base en las metodologías propuestas por Laubach y Williams (2001) y Mésonnier y Renne (2004). Un modelo neokeynesiano es la base de la estimación de la TIN de mediano plazo" como una...

A time-varying natural rate of interest is estimated for the euro area using a multivariate unobserved components model. The problem of aggregating interest rate data for the pre-EMU period is directly addressed, and a simple method in order to adjust the risk premia in the interest rate data...

The notion of a natural real rate of interest, due to Wicksell (1936), is widely used in current central bank research. The idea is that there exists a level at which the real interest rate would be compatible with output at its potential level and stationary inflation. Such a consept is of...

This paper estimates yield curve models for the UK, where the underlying determinants have a macroeconomic interpretation. The first factor is an unobserved inflation target, the second factor is annual inflation, and the third factor is a 'Taylor rule residual', which, among other things,...

This paper describes the joint dynamics of bond yields and macroeconomic variables in a vector autoregression, where identifying restrictions are based on the absence of arbitrage. Using a term structure model with inflation and economic growth factors, we investigate how macro factors affect...

A large body of literature has failed to find conclusive evidence that the expectations theory of the term structure holds in U.S. data. This paper asks more narrowly whether the theory holds conditional on an exogenous change in monetary policy. We argue that previous work on the expectation...

This paper suggests a term structure model which parsimoniously exploits a broad macroeconomic information set. The model does not incorporate latent yield curve factors, but instead uses the common components of a large number of macroeconomic variables and the short rate as explanatory...

This paper presents a comprehensive model on the spread between the euro overnight rate and the key policy rate of the ECB. It is shown that the most important variables driving the level and the volatility of this spread are expectations about changes of the key policy rate and the projected...