Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to associate a probabilistic confidence with the stock market interval forecasts obtained with the interval least squares (ILS) algorithm. The term probabilistic confidence in this paper means the probability of a point observation that will fall in the...

This paper examines the usefulness of asset prices in predicting recessions in the G-7 countries. It finds that asset price drops are significantly associated with the beginning of a recession in these countries. In particular, the marginal effect of an equity/house price drop on the likelihood...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to associate a probabilistic confidence with the stock market interval forecasts obtained with the interval least squares (ILS) algorithm. The term probabilistic confidence in this paper means the probability of a point observation that will fall in the...

The 2005 Article IV Consultation for the United Arab Emirates reports that the prices in real estate and stock markets, have soared aided by stronger economic fundamentals and investor optimism. An outward-oriented development strategy and prudent financial policies have resulted in impressive...

This paper examines the implications of inflation persistence for the inverted Fisher hypothesis that nominal interest rates do not adjust to inflation because of a high degree of substitutability between money and bonds. It is emphasized that the substitutability between nominal assets and...

This paper estimates potential output and the output gap for Slovakia which enjoyed rapid growth with few signs of economic overheating in recent years. It applies two broad sets of approaches: conventional methods, represented by a statistical method and a production function approach; and a...

This paper develops the theory of multi-step ahead forecasting for vector time series that exhibit temporal nonstationarity and co-integration. We treat the case of a semi-infinite past, developing the forecast filters and the forecast error filters explicitly, and also provide formulas for...

The Finnish Consumer Barometer was introduced in autumn 1987. Data were first collected twice a year and from August 1991 until September 1995 quarterly. After Finland joined the European Union in 1995, the survey was adopted as one member of the Harmonised Consumer Survey of the European...

Статья посвящена проблемам применения методов экспертных оценок в процессе экономического прогнозирования развития предприятия. Даны развернутые иллюстрации...

В данной статье представлен краткий исторический обзор исследований, связанных с использованием в экономическом прогнозировании индексов неценовых условий...