In this paper we examine whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy in the short run. Our analyses primarily concern the growth rates of real GDP but we also evaluate forecasts of other variables such as unemployment, price and wage inflation,...

This paper examines the dynamic effects of oil price shocks in addition to the aggregate supply and demand shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in four sample economies: Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand. We aim to discover whether oil price shocks play a crucial role in explaining...

This paper estimates equilibrium rates of macroeconomic aggregates for small open economies. We simultaneously identify the transitory and permanent components of output, inflation, the interest rate and the exchange rate by means of a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition. Realizations of the...

This paper proposes a new approach for estimating potential output and the NAIRU. The methodology models these key unobservable economic variables as latent stochastic trends within a trivariate system of observables comprising information on unemployment, GDP, and inflation. Identification is...

We develop a new version of the production function (PF) approach usually used for estimating the output gap of the euro area. Our version does not call for any (often imprecise) measure of the capital stock and improves the estimation of the trend total factor productivity. We asses this...

We develop a new version of the production function (PF) approach usually used for estimating the output gap of the euro area. Our version does not call for any (often imprecise) measure of the capital stock and improves the estimation of the trend total factor productivity. We asses this...

Following Doménech and Gómez (2006), and using quarterly Peruvian data for 1970:1-2007:4, I estimate a model that exploits the information contained in the inflation, unemployment and private investment rates in order to estimate non-observable variables as output gap, the NAIRU and the core...

A new approach is proposed for estimating potential output and the NAIRU. Identification is achieved using Okun’s law and a Phillips curve. The performance of the methodology is exemplified using data from Canada, the UK, and the US.

This paper estimates equilibrium rates of macroeconomic aggregates for small open economies. We simultaneously identify the transitory and permanent components of output, inflation, the interest rate and the exchange rate by means of a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition. Realizations of the...

This paper presents a new mixed frequency methodology to estimate output gaps and poten- tial output on a quarterly basis. The methodology strongly relies on the production function method commonly agreed at the European level (D'Auria et. al., 2010) but signicantly improves it as allows to...