A relative increase in demand for one type of beef can have one of two potentially countervailing effects: it can cause substitution of one type for another and/or it might expand overall demand. The results of a random parameters logit analysis indicate that regardless of whether USDA Choice or...

A relative increase in demand for one type of beef can have one of two potentially countervailing effects: it can cause substitution of one type for another and/or it might expand overall demand. The results of a random parameters logit analysis indicate that regardless of whether USDA Choice or...

Six popular crop yield distributions are compared to determine which best describes yield fluctuations out-of-sample. For 183 crop and county combinations, each distribution is estimated and ranked according to its log-likelihood function observed at out-of-sample observations. A semiparametric...

We compare the ability of three preference elicitation methods (hypothetical choices, non-hypothetical choices, and non-hypothetical rankings) and three discrete-choice econometric models (the multinomial logit, the independent availability logit, and the random parameter logit) to predict...

Little research has been conducted on evaluating out-of-sample forecasts of limited dependent variables. This study describes the large and small sample properties of two forecast evaluation techniques for limited dependent variables: receiver-operator curves and out-of-sample-log-likelihood...

The effects of various supply and demand shifts on beef price, quantity, and industry welfare have been widely studied under the assumption of beef quality homogeneity. In this paper, we construct a model of the beef sector that incorporates differences in beef quality. The model is used to...

Little research has been conducted on evaluating out-of-sample forecasts of limited dependent variables. This study describes the large and small sample properties of two forecast evaluation techniques for limited dependent variables: receiver-operator curves and out-of-sample-log-likelihood...

While the combination of several or more models is often found to improve forecasts (Brandt and Bessler, Min and Zellner, Norwood and Schroeder), hypothesis tests are typically conducted using a single model approach 1 . Hypothesis tests and forecasts have similar goals; they seek to define a...

Model selection is often conducted by ranking models by their out-of-sample forecast error. Such criteria only incorporate information about the expected value, whereas models usually describe the entire probability distribution. Hence, researchers may desire a criteria evaluating the...