We study the presence of long term investors using different return forecasting strategies and switching them based on their past performance generates the price trends observed in financial markets. In the empirical section, we assume that investors choose how to allocate their portfoilios...

This paper shows how purchasing power parity (PPP) can be used to construct a measure for inflation expectations and discusses the properties of this measure from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. Under the PPP hypothesis, inflation expectations in one country are equal to...

When one constructs long-term investment plan, one needs to consider the fact that long-term bonds are still exposed to inflation risk. This paper studies the intertemporal portfolio-consumption decision where the investment opportunities include "inflation-indexed bonds" -- a modern financial...

Remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Inflation-Indexed Securities and Inflation Risk Management Conference.

We propose a new approach to measuring long-run inflation risk, the inflation risk premium, and inflation expectations for the UK over the period 1985–2012. By adding long-term bond futures to the information set of inflation-indexed and nominal bonds, inflation risk is measured as an...

Remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Inflation-Indexed Securities and Inflation Risk Management Conference.

Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence that real rate risk premia and...

This article addresses some shortcomings in the empirical literature on disinflation costs. Namely, previous studies do not satisfactorily examine key fiscal and monetary policy practices that arguably affect policymaking credibility. These include the stock (and flow) of government debt, the...

We make the case for the U.S. government to issue a new security with a coupon tied to the United States’ current dollar GDP. This security might pay, for example, a coupon of one-trillionth of the GDP, and we propose the name 'Trill' be used to refer to this new security. This new debt...

Treasury inflation-indexed securities are just like nominal Treasuries, except that their coupon and principal payments are indexed to inflation. The yield spread between the two types of securities should serve as a daily measurement of the market's perception of expected inflation, modified to...