In this paper we compare alternative approaches for dating the Euro area business cycle and analyzing its characteristics. First, we extend a commonly used dating procedure to allow for length, size and amplitude restrictions, and to compute the probability of a phase change. Second, we apply...

Time series models are often adopted for forecasting because of their simplicity and good performance. The number of parameters in these models increases quickly with the number of variables modelled, so that usually only univariate or small-scale multivariate models are considered. Yet, data...

This paper analyses two features of concern to policy-makers in the countries of the prospective of the European Monetary Union: the solvency of their government finances; and the accuracy of fiscal forecasts. Extending the existing methodology of solvency tests, the paper finds that, with few...

This paper proposes a dating algorithm based on an appropriately defined Markov chain that enforces alternation of peaks and troughs, and duration constraints concerning the phases and the full cycle. The algorithm, which implements Harding and Pagan's non-parametric dating methodology, allows...

We analyse the evolution of the business cycle in the accession countries, after a careful examination of the seasonal properties of the available series and the required modification of the cycle dating procedures. We then focus on the degree of cyclical concordance within the group of...

We analyse the evolution of the business cycle in the new EU member countries, after a careful examination of the seasonal properties of the available series and the required modification of the cycle dating procedures. We then focus on the degree of cyclical concordance within the group of new...

The recent crisis has emphasized the role of financial - macroeconomic interactions, and international trade in goods and services, in the transmission of the shocks. Both phenomena, closely related to the higher degree of globalization, are very relevant for small open economies, and...

The accession of ten countries into the European Union makes the forecasting of their key macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation and interest rates an exercise of some importance. Because of the transition period, only short spans of reliable time series are available which...