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The Canadian Economic and Fiscal Model (CEFM) is used by the Department of Finance to forecast key economic and fiscal indicators as well as to simulate the economic and fiscal effects of policy or economic changes. This paper documents the dynamic forecasting and simulation properties of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086108
The first version of the Canadian Economic and Fiscal Model (CEFM) was completed in 1986. Since then, CEFM has been used by the Department of Finance for macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis. The model has gone through many rounds of revision since its original version. This report...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086130
This paper reports empirical evidence on the determinants of the decision to stay in school for a group of young Quebecers. The model used is derived from the theory of investment in human capital. The independent variables refer to personal characteristics, family environment, school...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008510919
This paper proposes new leading economic indexes for Canadian provinces, based on the NBER methodology, to monitor future short-term business cycle developments. The empirical evaluation of the performance of the NBER leading economic indexes in signaling cyclical turning points and forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086099
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086100
This paper considers a broader fiscal policy framework in public debt management decisions by examining the interrelations between interest rates and the economy. This approach has the potential to result in a new optimal debt maturity structure. A shorter debt structure is generally less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086101
This paper examines whether there is any reason to believe that the expansion phase of the Canadian business cycle is more likely to end as time passes. Three issues are analysed -- whether there is evidence of "duration dependence" in business cycle phases, whether the pattern of business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086102
Two competing measures of productivity are commonly used by both academics and policy makers. These are labour productivity—output per hour—and total factor productivity (TFP)—which measures productivity net of the contribution of capital. Which measure is the ‘best’ has been the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086103
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086104
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005086105