This paper explores different fiscal stimuli within a business cycle model with an endogenous mass of firms which we estimate for the U.S. economy using Bayesian techniques. We demonstrate that a changing mass of firms is a crucial dimension for evaluating fiscal policy since it can both...

The aim of this paper is to solve the inconsistency problem à la Barro/Gordon within a New Keynesian model and to derive time-consistent interest rate rules of Taylor-type. We find a multiplicity of time-consistent rules. In contrast to the famous Kydland/Prescott-Barro/Gordon approach,...

This paper explores different fiscal stimuli within a business cycle model with an endogenous number of firms which we estimate for the U.S. economy using Bayesian techniques. We demonstrate that a changing number of firms is a crucial dimension for evaluating fiscal policy since it can both...

We introduce wavelet-based methodology for estimation of realized variance allowing its measurement in the time-frequency domain. Using smooth wavelets and Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform, we allow for the decomposition of the realized variance into several investment horizons and...

Asymmetries in volatility spillovers are highly relevant to risk valuation and portfolio diversification strategies in financial markets. Yet, the large literature studying information transmission mechanisms ignores the fact that bad and good volatility may spill over at different magnitudes....

This paper investigates how the conditional quantiles of future returns and volatility of financial assets vary with various measures of ex-post variation in asset prices as well as option-implied volatility. We work in the exible quantile regression framework and rely on recently developed...

We employ a wavelet approach and conduct a time-frequency analysis of dynamic correlations between pairs of key traded assets (gold, oil, and stocks) covering the period from 1987 to 2012. The analysis is performed on both intra-day and daily data. We show that heterogeneity in correlations...

We lay out a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with Markov switching to study the term structure of interest rates. We extend the previous models by opening up the economy and adding a foreign demand channel. As a result, we explain the term structure of...

This paper develops a two-step estimation methodology that allows us to apply catastrophe theory to stock market returns with time-varying volatility and to model stock market crashes. In the first step, we utilize high-frequency data to estimate daily realized volatility from returns. Then, we...