This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using fan charts. These depict the magnitude of risks upside and downside surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm for...

Hungarian debt level has steadily increased since 2001, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching about 84% at end-2011. This high level combined with significant volatility of macroeconomic variable influencing potential future debt paths – GDP growth, exchange rate and interest spreads – put...

This paper applies stochastic simulation methods to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies and provide probability measures for projections of the external and public debt burden over the medium term. The vulnerability of public debt to adverse shocks is determined by a number...

The problem of pricing derivative financial products is central to the theory of capital markets. An option is a financial contract conveying its owner the right of buying or selling a financial asset (underlying asset) at a preset strike price K, at a fixed expiration date T (maturity). Unlike...

Oil-producing countries face challenges arising from the fact that oil revenue is exhaustible, volatile, and uncertain, and largely originates from abroad. Reflecting these challenges, the paper proposes some important general principles for the formulation and assessment of fiscal policy in...

The fiscal position of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) has deteriorated significantly in recent years, resulting in sharp increases in public debt. The sustainability of public debt is examined using the public sector budget constraint to derive the maximum public-debt-to-GDP ratio...

This paper develops simple guidelines for fiscal policy in oil producing countries, focusing on three issues: intergenerational oil distribution, precautionary saving, and adjustment costs. The paper presents a framework to analyze how the revenue generated by an exhaustible source of wealth...

The paper assesses the United Kingdom`s golden rule and debt rule against ideal characteristics of fiscal rules. It concludes that they are clearly defined; transparent in institutional arrangements and measurement; adequate to ensure sustainability; and strike a good balance between flexibility...

We look into Brazil`s public sector accounts during the two administrations of President Fernando Henrique Cardoso: 1995-98 and 1998-2002. We underline the fact that the authorities` attitude was as important as the pace of the structural reforms for understanding the dynamics of the public...

A szerző a maastrichti szerződés fiskális kritériumait kétféle szempontból elemzi: 1. azok mennyiben megalapozottak és ésszerűek közgazdaságilag általában véve, illetve az Európai Unió (EU), azon belül a gazdasági és monetáris unió (EMU) tagországaira várhatóan...