Empirical rejections of the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) in the bond market have attracted much attention. In this paper we demonstrate that if agents have information about next period's short yield in addition to that contained in the current short yield, a small sample bias arises...

There is now widespread evidence that investment strategies based on value and momentum have been profitable in the past. Moreover, combining value and momentum into a single investment strategy provides investment performance that is less sensitive to market cyclicality. However, portfolio...

In this paper, we document a very strong day-of-the-month effect in the performance of momentum strategies in the foreign exchange market. We show that this seasonality in trading strategy performance is attributable to seasonality in the conditional volatility of foreign exchange returns, and...

In this paper, we develop a momentum trading strategy based on the low frequency trend component of the spot exchange rate. Using, alternately, kernel regression and the high-pass filter of Hodrick and Prescott (1997), we recover the non-linear trend in the monthly exchange rate and use...

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure has been decisively rejected by a large empirical literature that spans several decades. In this paper, using a newly constructed dataset of synthetic zero coupon bond yields, we show that evidence against the expectations hypothesis became very...

There has recently been renewed interest in the intraday range (defined as the difference between the intraday high and low prices) as a measure of local volatility. Recent studies have shown that estimates of volatility based on the range are significantly more efficient than estimates based on...

Models of the time-varying conditional minimum-variance hedge ratio (MVHR) typically do not provide a significant improvement in terms of hedging performance over the unconditional MVHR model. In view of the widely documented success of conditional volatility models (on which models of the...

In this paper, we show that although minimum-variance hedging unambiguously reduces the standard deviation of portfolio returns, it tends to increase portfolio kurtosis and consequently the effectiveness of hedging in terms of a more general measure of risk such as VaR is uncertain. We compare...

A number of financial variables have been shown to be effective in explaining the time-series of aggregate equity returns in both the UK and the US. These include, inter alia, the equity dividend yield, the spread between the yields on long and short government bonds, and the lagged equity...