Recent developments in nonlinear time series modelling are reviewed. Three main types of nonlinear models are discussed: Markov Switching, Threshold Autoregression and Smooth Transition Autoregression. Classical and Bayesian estimation techniques are described for each model. Parametric tests...

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with...

This paper proposes a flexible framework for analyzing the joint time series properties of the level and volatility of expected excess stock returns. An unobservable dynamic factor is constructed as a nonlinear proxy for the market risk premia with its first moment and conditional volatility...

Banks rely heavily on incoming payments from other banks to fund their own payments. The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, destroyed facilities in Lower Manhattan, leaving some banks unable to send payments through the Federal Reserve's Fedwire payments system. As a result, many banks...

When economic activity slows down, labor markets may undergo extensive structural change - the permanent reallocation of workers across industries. Job losses can be heavy, and creating new jobs and retraining displaced workers to fill them can take time. A high degree of restructuring may help...

This paper proposes a flexible framework for analyzing the joint time series properties of the level and volatility of expected excess stock returns. An unobservable dynamic factor is constructed as a nonlinear proxy for the market risk premia with its first moment and conditional volatility...

In this paper we have two goals: first, we want to represent monthly stock market fluctuations by constructing a nonlinear coincident financial indicator. The indicator is constructed as an unobservable factor whose first moment and conditional volatility are driven by a two state Markov...

Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses all relevant information, is available in real-time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation measures such as core inflation measures. This paper...

Remarks before the Japan Center for Economic Research, Tokyo, Japan.

Remarks at the SIFMA Conference on Securities Financing Transactions, New York City.