The economic slowdown as a result of the global crisis has been severe, and the recovery has not yet taken hold. Despite ample buffers, including large fiscal space and strong international reserves, the policy response to the crisis has been constrained. Inflation has resurfaced as a concern...

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that in recent years, the Indonesian economy has benefited from a supportive global economic environment, namely in the form of a rise in commodity prices and strong growth in emerging markets. However, these conditions have been less supportive...

This paper estimated the output gap in Lithuania using three different methodologies—an HP filter, a panel regression, and a production function. This study examines how the levels of the current account deficit and the real exchange rate in Lithuania compare with estimates of their...

This paper summarizes the methods and types of indicators that are often employed, both insid and outside the IMF, to assess whether exchange rates are broadly in line with economic fundamentals.

The IMF's internal analysis of exchange rate issues has been guided by, and limited by, the conceptual and empirical frameworks that have emerged from the collective research of the economics profession. The research has provided several general approaches that are useful for assessing whether...

This Selected Issues paper evaluates Hungary’s growth and current account performance by using a simple empirical model that provides benchmarks to measure GDP growth rates and current account deficits. The cross-country analysis suggests that in general, larger current account deficits...

This paper explores the global impact of population aging, using a calibrated overlapping generations model of eight world regions to simulate the effects of historical and projected demographic trends on international capital flows. The simulations show that there will be a turning point in...